Election 2020 South Carolina Primary

A vote here sign is seen outside a polling place during the South Carolina primary, Saturday, Feb. 29, 2020, in Columbia, S.C. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

For the first time this election cycle, a Republican tops the list of the 10 most vulnerable House members.

California Rep. Mike Garcia takes the No. 1 spot after winning a May special election for a seat President Donald Trump lost in 2016. The list now features the same number of Republicans and Democrats, as Trump struggles in competitive districts across the country amid an ongoing pandemic and economic crisis. Bolstered by massive campaign war chests, House Democrats are more bullish than ever that they will grow their majority by defeating vulnerable Republicans and winning a slew of open-seat races. Republicans acknowledge their path to the majority is shrinking.

Two Republicans, New York’s John Katko and Nebraska’s Don Bacon, are also new to the list of vulnerable members. Katko holds a seat Trump lost, while Bacon’s district narrowly backed the president. Katko and Bacon face rematches against 2018 opponents, but Democrats argue 2020 may be shaping up to be an even better year for them than when they retook the House. To make room for the GOP entrants, a few Democrats have fallen off the list, including Utah freshman Ben McAdams and longtime Minnesota Rep. Collin C. Peterson, who chairs the House Agriculture Committee.

The 2016 presidential results in these districts were factored into the rankings, along with conversations with strategists and race ratings from Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales.

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